What Did YOU Think of the State of the Union Address?

Here we are, 34 minutes in to the #SOTU2013, and I swear it's October, 2012. To me, this is a campaign speech.

But it's not over... what do you think? I'll post the transcript as soon as it becomes available. Please share your thoughts below.

UPDATE: Speech transcript: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/transcript-president-barack-obamas-2013-state-union-address/story?id=18480069

CNN's Joke of a Poll and My Election Prediction

As you can see from the title of this post, there are two relevant issues I'm writing about today: CNN's final poll, and how I think the election will play out. They're relatively unrelated, but I figured I'd get them both out in one post.

First, the CNN poll: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf

This final CNN poll is truly a joke. It claims the that Obama and Romney are tied 49% to 49%, but that is with, according to the poll, Romney winning the independent vote my 22 points, 59% to 37%. You might be scratching your head in amazement. "How could this be?" you might ask. Well, it's really quite simple: democrats are oversampled by +11! (D/R/I = 41/30/29).

CNN Shamelessly Misleads On Economic Report

Last Friday, the Commerce Department released a report claiming the economy grew at a dismal 2.0% annualized rate. By most economists' standards, an economy whose output exceeds last year's output by 2.0% is not growing quickly or strongly by any stretch of the imagination. But that didn't stop CNN from claiming it was a different story. See the article here: http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/26/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

Here is the front page headline from CNN.com:

Click Image for Expanded View

Team Obama's "My First Time" Ad

Here is the new controversial ad from Team Obama: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=o6G3nwhPuR4 #MyFirstTime

Does anyone see a problem with this? Is Obama's campaign seriously comparing voting for Obama to a young woman losing her virginity? Is this how democrats view women? That when they vote, it's like a hook-up? That voting for your unquestioned, unchecked king is something sensual? That they chastise republicans for a "war on women" and wanting to take away women's rights, but "hey, voting for us is like sex! Bring it on!?" Lena Dunham, in the clip, says that voting caused her to go from being a girl to a woman. Come on!

Honestly, in my opinion, this ad lacks class. Mixing sex, especially when sensitivities are high from recent statements about rape and sexuality in general have been made, with voting seems to be going too far. Yes, this is done by Team Obama. It's on their barackobamadotcom YouTube channel.

But maybe I'm way off on this one. I don't have kids, but I'm curious how mothers feel about this. How does the mother of a 16-18 year old feel about the innuendos in this ad. I'm not religious, but how do religious fathers of teenage daughters feel about this ad? I think, personally, that the ad sinks to a new low in campaigning. And, of course, I predict the media won't even make this a story. Can you imagine the media outrage if the GOP dared to put something like this out?

What do you think? Am I way off? Please share your opinions below. Happy Friday!

Obama's Second Term Plan Diagnosis: Déjà Vu

Okay, I'll admit it... all the good titles for this post were used already. What I wanted to use was "does the math add up," but that was taken already. I'll get to that in a second. Moving on, here is the official second term plan from President Barack Obama titled, "A Plan for Jobs and Middle Class Security - The New Economic Patriotism"

See Obama's second term plan here: https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Jobs_Plan_Booklet.pdf

The first surprising thing to me is that CNN's Jessica Yellin said, "it's not anything significantly new." - Check it out: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/10/23/cnns-jessica-yellin-not-anything-significantly-new-obamas-just-releas

The Third Presidential Debate - Open Forum

The debate will air live at 9:00pm tonight on all major networks. 

The final presidential debate is supposed to center on foreign policy.

Pre-debate questions:

- Who do you predict will win? 

- Will Obama continue with his aggressive approach?

- Will Mitt Romney be able to unseat Obama's "successes"?

After the debate:

- Who won? 

- Did this debate sway your vote?
- Who do you think will win the election?

After the debate, join me and the usual crew on The 405 Live at 10:30pm EST tonight for our special post debate show!  The show is hosted by @johng405. Listen at the following link:

http://the405radio.com/

Call in at 877-297-8022 to give your take on the presidential debate. Jump on the air and join us in the fun! As always, feedback on the segment is greatly appreciated. 

The Presidential Town Hall Debate Open Forum

As with the recent VP Debate, this is an open forum to discuss tonight's Presidential town hall debate.

Pre-debate questions:

- Who do you predict will win? 

- Will Obama be more successful with is "aggressive" approach?

- What would YOU ask the candidates?

After the debate:

- Who won? 

- Has your vote been swayed?
- Best line? Worst line?
- Who do you think will win the election?

After the debate, join me and the usual crew on The 405 Live at 10:30pm EST tonight for our special post debate show!  The show is hosted by @johng405. Listen at the following link:

http://the405radio.com/

Call in at 877-297-8022 to give your take on the presidential debate. Jump on the air and join us in the fun! As always, feedback on the segment is greatly appreciated. 

"I'm Barack Obama, and I'm Going to Deceive You in This Message"

Harsh, huh? Maybe. But true? Absolutely.

If you watch his most recent ad, President Obama is using the same old lie: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/12/obama-mitt-romney-tax-rate_n_1962187.html (the video is near the bottom).

Why is this deception? Well, I've written about that before... many times: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/08/obama-continues-to-lie-about-taxes.html

The Vice Presidential Debate - Open Forum and Radio Show

Let's get ready to rumble!!!! #VPDebate

Image source: Wikipedia

Okay, maybe not. This isn't a fight. It's a serious chance to learn about our candidates' positions on how they would help or hurt the country over the next 4 years. It's old school democrat versus young-gun conservative.

Did ABC News Intentionally Remove Mitt Romney's Opening Statement from its Transcript of the First Debate?

This was reported on Breitbart.com: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/08/ABC-News-Removes-Transcript - I did not write this, and I am posting this on my blog to pass along information. I think this is an interesting find, and I decided to "fact-check" the issue myself. Additionally, I think the questions the people at Breitbart ask are relevant.

First, the ABC transcript where the opening statements occured: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/presidential-debate-transcript-denver-colo-oct/story?id=17390260&page=6#.UHLDBZj7KWg

If you watched the debate Wednesday night, you remember that Obama had the first thing to say. His first lines were:

Open Thread Today and Post Debate Radio Show Tonight!

This post is an open thread dedicated to sharing your views, thoughts, and opinions of the presidential debate. Share anything you'd like from media positions to predictions to live updates if you're following.

Then...........

Can you think of a better way to cap off the first presidential debate tonight than with a......... debate?! :-). Join me and the usual crew on The 405 Live at 10:30pm EST tonight for our special post debate show!  The show is hosted by @johng405. Listen at the following link:

http://the405radio.com/

Call in at 877-297-8022 to give your take on the presidential debate. Jump on the air and join us in the fun! As always, feedback on the segment is greatly appreciated.

Getting to the Bottom of Skewed Polls - Part 1

This is labeled as "Part 1" because if more email correspondence exists between me and various pollsters, I will add them as further posts. Of course, if pollsters are afraid to respond, I will write about that, too. Sorry, Mr. Cooper... but this is my version of "Keeping Them Honest." :-)

There has been much written about the skewing or "oversampling" of democrat respondents in recent polls. I wrote about how I believe this is a form of psychological voter suppression being employed by the media: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/voter-suppression-look-no-further-than.html. In short, the oversampling of democrats in polls allows the results to be skewed in favor of Obama, promoting a "Romney can't win this race" situation in an effort to get republican voters to stay home since their efforts would be futile. CNN wrote a "debunk" piece of my theory here: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/28/analysis-polling-criticism-unfounded/. And yes, I have been skeptical of these polls before usual the conservative pundits got on board.

Un-skewed State Polls Update

This is just a quick update post to put the un-skewed poll tracker front and center. Check it out here:

http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

Key battleground polls have been released over the weekend and today, and while these polls show some significant leads for Obama, once the data is scrubbed and un-skewed, the picture isn't as bleak for Romney. In fact, in North Carolina, the un-skewed calculation of PPP's poll shows Romney with a 9 point lead. Check it out!

LME Presidential Poll Tracker / Database

This page will be used as a storage location for polling analysis and will be updated often as possible. It is a follow-up to my recent post describing my view that I believe the left-leaning media intentionally over-samples democrats in their polls in an effort to discourage GOP voting. The theory is that if the race is presumed to be "out of reach" for Mitt Romney, republican voters would be more likely to abstain from voting if they feel their efforts would be futile. I wrote about this here: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/voter-suppression-look-no-further-than.html <- click here for analysis and methodology.

Barack Obama Logo on American Flag Mock-Up - Is This Going Too Far?

What do you think of the following item being sold at BarackObama.com? (https://store.barackobama.com/obama-2012-store-collections/artists-for-obama/our-stripes-flag-print.html) - Please vote using the buttons below. Instructions are in this post - click "Read More"

(Click the image for an expanded view)

For Voter Suppression: Look No Further Than The Media

I'm sure you've seen all the back and forth debate about voter ID laws. People on the right claim they're needed to preserve the integrity of voting while people on the left claim that they would hurt minorities and suppress their vote. We've had a reader write in a post about this:  http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/04/readers-post-14-voter-id-laws-racism-ha.html

I pose to you that there is a different kind of voter suppression occurring, and it's conducted by the media. First, an outline: I often discuss the concept of rhetoric... or, as I like to put it, "rhetoricing." Rhetoricing is the process the media uses to sway people's minds. If the media constantly headlines pro-Obama or anti-Mitt Romney headlines/articles, people will be swayed. ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC News, USA Today, and major print publications should be reporting news and not opinion. But that's not the way it is. Just take a look at cnn.com's front page from September 18th. If you visited the site, you instantly encountered the five following headlines: 

Don't Believe the "Red State" Lie

We conservatives say that one of the main reasons we should not re-elect President Obama is because of his failure to turn the country around. Often times we are met with the excuse, "well, it was soooooo messed up... George W. Bush left us with such a mess that Obama can't fix it in just four years."

Hmmm, what an interesting concept. If GWB was only president for 8 years, and it is unrealistic to expect the country to "turn" as we were promised it would... how long do you think it would take to turn a state or a group of states that have been blue for, oh, I don't know... many, many decades?

Open Forum: Mitt Romney's Secretly-Taped Comments

Open forums are a place for debate. That's really all this is about. A position is shared, there isn't much analysis, and the position is debated.

Today's topic: Mitt Romney's comments about the 47% of people that will not vote for him. I'm sure if you've turned on the TV or logged onto a news website today you've heard the latest. You were probably met with headlines of "Mitt Romney claims Obama supporters feel 'entitled'" or something along those lines. To get straight to the source, here are the videos from the socialist publication Mother Jones: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser

The biggest quote that is making its way through the headlines:

Barack Obama Should Take His Own Advice - 2008 DNC Speech

Maybe you've seen this video. Maybe you haven't. This isn't an economic analysis, and this isn't something I can take credit for. Keep in mind, I don't blog for accolades, and I don't blog for attention. I blog to spread information. I blog to share truth. I blog to share that I'm a 29 year old conservative in a liberal world, and most importantly, I blog to share WHY I'm a 29 year old conservative in a liberal world. Sometimes I give conclusions. Sometimes I don't... but if I'm going to give information and data, it's to help people learn something. In this case, watch the following video clip of then candidate Obama's 2008 Democratic National Convention speech and make your own conclusions:

The Official "Campaign" Slogan of This Blog: #Question

Designed by Pachyderm Pride

Why "Question?" Where does this come from? And why the similarities to the Obama "Forward" logo? All this will be explained. 

First, let me explain one of the original reasons I titled the blog The Elephant in the Room. As a sub-30 year old republican living in Maryland, I'm certainly a rare breed. Naturally, many of my friends (and yes, this definitely extends to Facebook) are democrats. Heck, my wife is a democrat, and I don't fault her for it. :-) Because of that, I'm obviously outnumbered not only in my age group, but in my social circles as well. I'm okay with this. I chose the screen name and web address "Loudmouth Elephant" because I care about politics and economics, and in order to be heard, that's what I have to be. Regardless, I tend to be the "elephant in the room" when it comes to political discussions.