An Interesting Election Day Analysis - Independents

I was stumbling through some polling data and I noticed a trend I've been writing about in my poll tracker: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

- Mitt Romney is doing well with independents.

But why is this significant considering I projected Obama to win the election? http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/11/cnns-joke-of-poll-and-my-election.html

I'll answer that by looking back to 2008 exit polling data: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

In 2008, Obama won independents 52 - 44. Party line votes were nearly split (Obama won 89/9 D/R - McCain won 90/10 R/D), but as shown, independents, or 29% of the vote in 2008, went for Obama.

CNN's Joke of a Poll and My Election Prediction

As you can see from the title of this post, there are two relevant issues I'm writing about today: CNN's final poll, and how I think the election will play out. They're relatively unrelated, but I figured I'd get them both out in one post.

First, the CNN poll: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf

This final CNN poll is truly a joke. It claims the that Obama and Romney are tied 49% to 49%, but that is with, according to the poll, Romney winning the independent vote my 22 points, 59% to 37%. You might be scratching your head in amazement. "How could this be?" you might ask. Well, it's really quite simple: democrats are oversampled by +11! (D/R/I = 41/30/29).

Obama's Second Term Plan Diagnosis: Déjà Vu

Okay, I'll admit it... all the good titles for this post were used already. What I wanted to use was "does the math add up," but that was taken already. I'll get to that in a second. Moving on, here is the official second term plan from President Barack Obama titled, "A Plan for Jobs and Middle Class Security - The New Economic Patriotism"

See Obama's second term plan here: https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Jobs_Plan_Booklet.pdf

The first surprising thing to me is that CNN's Jessica Yellin said, "it's not anything significantly new." - Check it out: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/10/23/cnns-jessica-yellin-not-anything-significantly-new-obamas-just-releas

The Third Presidential Debate - Open Forum

The debate will air live at 9:00pm tonight on all major networks. 

The final presidential debate is supposed to center on foreign policy.

Pre-debate questions:

- Who do you predict will win? 

- Will Obama continue with his aggressive approach?

- Will Mitt Romney be able to unseat Obama's "successes"?

After the debate:

- Who won? 

- Did this debate sway your vote?
- Who do you think will win the election?

After the debate, join me and the usual crew on The 405 Live at 10:30pm EST tonight for our special post debate show!  The show is hosted by @johng405. Listen at the following link:

http://the405radio.com/

Call in at 877-297-8022 to give your take on the presidential debate. Jump on the air and join us in the fun! As always, feedback on the segment is greatly appreciated. 

The Presidential Town Hall Debate Open Forum

As with the recent VP Debate, this is an open forum to discuss tonight's Presidential town hall debate.

Pre-debate questions:

- Who do you predict will win? 

- Will Obama be more successful with is "aggressive" approach?

- What would YOU ask the candidates?

After the debate:

- Who won? 

- Has your vote been swayed?
- Best line? Worst line?
- Who do you think will win the election?

After the debate, join me and the usual crew on The 405 Live at 10:30pm EST tonight for our special post debate show!  The show is hosted by @johng405. Listen at the following link:

http://the405radio.com/

Call in at 877-297-8022 to give your take on the presidential debate. Jump on the air and join us in the fun! As always, feedback on the segment is greatly appreciated. 

"I'm Barack Obama, and I'm Going to Deceive You in This Message"

Harsh, huh? Maybe. But true? Absolutely.

If you watch his most recent ad, President Obama is using the same old lie: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/12/obama-mitt-romney-tax-rate_n_1962187.html (the video is near the bottom).

Why is this deception? Well, I've written about that before... many times: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/08/obama-continues-to-lie-about-taxes.html

The Vice Presidential Debate - Open Forum and Radio Show

Let's get ready to rumble!!!! #VPDebate

Image source: Wikipedia

Okay, maybe not. This isn't a fight. It's a serious chance to learn about our candidates' positions on how they would help or hurt the country over the next 4 years. It's old school democrat versus young-gun conservative.

Who Should Get Credit for "Saving" the Auto Industry?

First, before I start, I need to get this out there: I was/am firmly against the auto industry "bailouts." I don't care who did it; I do not believe the government should have rewarded poor business decisions. It's quite simple in my book. If you make good business decisions, you survive. If you don't, you fail. By bailing out GM and Chrysler, the government ultimately mitigated risk away from a company and ensured that they would be preserved no matter how badly they performed. The cost of setting this precedent outweighs the short-term benefit of saving these companies. I wrote about this in one of my first ever blog posts: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2011/11/too-big-to-fail-dangerous-precedent.html

But why am I writing about this now? For one, Vice President Joe Biden and Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan are set to debate tomorrow, and I'm sure this will come up. Joe Biden is often heard at campaign rallies touting the "Bin Laden is dead and GM is alive" line. Take a look: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120903/POLITICS01/209030369. He even said it in his DNC speech in Charlotte, North Carolina earlier this year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKCwQnIygcw

Did ABC News Intentionally Remove Mitt Romney's Opening Statement from its Transcript of the First Debate?

This was reported on Breitbart.com: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/10/08/ABC-News-Removes-Transcript - I did not write this, and I am posting this on my blog to pass along information. I think this is an interesting find, and I decided to "fact-check" the issue myself. Additionally, I think the questions the people at Breitbart ask are relevant.

First, the ABC transcript where the opening statements occured: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/presidential-debate-transcript-denver-colo-oct/story?id=17390260&page=6#.UHLDBZj7KWg

If you watched the debate Wednesday night, you remember that Obama had the first thing to say. His first lines were:

Open Thread Today and Post Debate Radio Show Tonight!

This post is an open thread dedicated to sharing your views, thoughts, and opinions of the presidential debate. Share anything you'd like from media positions to predictions to live updates if you're following.

Then...........

Can you think of a better way to cap off the first presidential debate tonight than with a......... debate?! :-). Join me and the usual crew on The 405 Live at 10:30pm EST tonight for our special post debate show!  The show is hosted by @johng405. Listen at the following link:

http://the405radio.com/

Call in at 877-297-8022 to give your take on the presidential debate. Jump on the air and join us in the fun! As always, feedback on the segment is greatly appreciated.

Getting to the Bottom of Skewed Polls - Part 1

This is labeled as "Part 1" because if more email correspondence exists between me and various pollsters, I will add them as further posts. Of course, if pollsters are afraid to respond, I will write about that, too. Sorry, Mr. Cooper... but this is my version of "Keeping Them Honest." :-)

There has been much written about the skewing or "oversampling" of democrat respondents in recent polls. I wrote about how I believe this is a form of psychological voter suppression being employed by the media: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/voter-suppression-look-no-further-than.html. In short, the oversampling of democrats in polls allows the results to be skewed in favor of Obama, promoting a "Romney can't win this race" situation in an effort to get republican voters to stay home since their efforts would be futile. CNN wrote a "debunk" piece of my theory here: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/28/analysis-polling-criticism-unfounded/. And yes, I have been skeptical of these polls before usual the conservative pundits got on board.

Un-skewed State Polls Update

This is just a quick update post to put the un-skewed poll tracker front and center. Check it out here:

http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/lme-presidential-poll-tracker-database.html

Key battleground polls have been released over the weekend and today, and while these polls show some significant leads for Obama, once the data is scrubbed and un-skewed, the picture isn't as bleak for Romney. In fact, in North Carolina, the un-skewed calculation of PPP's poll shows Romney with a 9 point lead. Check it out!

LME Presidential Poll Tracker / Database

This page will be used as a storage location for polling analysis and will be updated often as possible. It is a follow-up to my recent post describing my view that I believe the left-leaning media intentionally over-samples democrats in their polls in an effort to discourage GOP voting. The theory is that if the race is presumed to be "out of reach" for Mitt Romney, republican voters would be more likely to abstain from voting if they feel their efforts would be futile. I wrote about this here: http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/09/voter-suppression-look-no-further-than.html <- click here for analysis and methodology.

Barack Obama Logo on American Flag Mock-Up - Is This Going Too Far?

What do you think of the following item being sold at BarackObama.com? (https://store.barackobama.com/obama-2012-store-collections/artists-for-obama/our-stripes-flag-print.html) - Please vote using the buttons below. Instructions are in this post - click "Read More"

(Click the image for an expanded view)

For Voter Suppression: Look No Further Than The Media

I'm sure you've seen all the back and forth debate about voter ID laws. People on the right claim they're needed to preserve the integrity of voting while people on the left claim that they would hurt minorities and suppress their vote. We've had a reader write in a post about this:  http://loudmouthelephant.blogspot.com/2012/04/readers-post-14-voter-id-laws-racism-ha.html

I pose to you that there is a different kind of voter suppression occurring, and it's conducted by the media. First, an outline: I often discuss the concept of rhetoric... or, as I like to put it, "rhetoricing." Rhetoricing is the process the media uses to sway people's minds. If the media constantly headlines pro-Obama or anti-Mitt Romney headlines/articles, people will be swayed. ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC News, USA Today, and major print publications should be reporting news and not opinion. But that's not the way it is. Just take a look at cnn.com's front page from September 18th. If you visited the site, you instantly encountered the five following headlines: 

Don't Believe the "Red State" Lie

We conservatives say that one of the main reasons we should not re-elect President Obama is because of his failure to turn the country around. Often times we are met with the excuse, "well, it was soooooo messed up... George W. Bush left us with such a mess that Obama can't fix it in just four years."

Hmmm, what an interesting concept. If GWB was only president for 8 years, and it is unrealistic to expect the country to "turn" as we were promised it would... how long do you think it would take to turn a state or a group of states that have been blue for, oh, I don't know... many, many decades?

Open Forum: Mitt Romney's Secretly-Taped Comments

Open forums are a place for debate. That's really all this is about. A position is shared, there isn't much analysis, and the position is debated.

Today's topic: Mitt Romney's comments about the 47% of people that will not vote for him. I'm sure if you've turned on the TV or logged onto a news website today you've heard the latest. You were probably met with headlines of "Mitt Romney claims Obama supporters feel 'entitled'" or something along those lines. To get straight to the source, here are the videos from the socialist publication Mother Jones: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser

The biggest quote that is making its way through the headlines:

READER'S POST #20 - Romney Misguided on Egypt/Libya

By: whatsamattausa

Mere hours after Americans were killed in savage attacks in Libya and Egypt, Mitt Romney blasts the Obama administration for apologizing for freedom rather than condemning the attacks. Here is the 'apology' statement Romney is talking about: Link -  http://egypt.usembassy.gov/pr091112.html text:

September 11, 2012

The Embassy of the United States in Cairo condemns the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims – as we condemn efforts to offend believers of all religions. Today, the 11th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, Americans are honoring our patriots and those who serve our nation as the fitting response to the enemies of democracy. Respect for religious beliefs is a cornerstone of American democracy. We firmly reject the actions by those who abuse the universal right of free speech to hurt the religious beliefs of others.

Barack Obama Should Take His Own Advice - 2008 DNC Speech

Maybe you've seen this video. Maybe you haven't. This isn't an economic analysis, and this isn't something I can take credit for. Keep in mind, I don't blog for accolades, and I don't blog for attention. I blog to spread information. I blog to share truth. I blog to share that I'm a 29 year old conservative in a liberal world, and most importantly, I blog to share WHY I'm a 29 year old conservative in a liberal world. Sometimes I give conclusions. Sometimes I don't... but if I'm going to give information and data, it's to help people learn something. In this case, watch the following video clip of then candidate Obama's 2008 Democratic National Convention speech and make your own conclusions:

The Official "Campaign" Slogan of This Blog: #Question

Designed by Pachyderm Pride

Why "Question?" Where does this come from? And why the similarities to the Obama "Forward" logo? All this will be explained. 

First, let me explain one of the original reasons I titled the blog The Elephant in the Room. As a sub-30 year old republican living in Maryland, I'm certainly a rare breed. Naturally, many of my friends (and yes, this definitely extends to Facebook) are democrats. Heck, my wife is a democrat, and I don't fault her for it. :-) Because of that, I'm obviously outnumbered not only in my age group, but in my social circles as well. I'm okay with this. I chose the screen name and web address "Loudmouth Elephant" because I care about politics and economics, and in order to be heard, that's what I have to be. Regardless, I tend to be the "elephant in the room" when it comes to political discussions.