CNN's Joke of a Poll and My Election Prediction

As you can see from the title of this post, there are two relevant issues I'm writing about today: CNN's final poll, and how I think the election will play out. They're relatively unrelated, but I figured I'd get them both out in one post.

First, the CNN poll: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf

This final CNN poll is truly a joke. It claims the that Obama and Romney are tied 49% to 49%, but that is with, according to the poll, Romney winning the independent vote my 22 points, 59% to 37%. You might be scratching your head in amazement. "How could this be?" you might ask. Well, it's really quite simple: democrats are oversampled by +11! (D/R/I = 41/30/29).

If this doesn't make you laugh (yes, even in 2008, when Obama peaked, the electorate was only +7 democrat), then take a look at CNN's synopsis of the poll located here: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/04/cnn-national-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney/?hpt=hp_t2

     - "And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll."

Hmmm, a "dead heat" on almost every major indicator... that was tested in the poll... except, oh, I don't know... independent voters? When unskewed using Gallup's party affiliation data, Romney, not only because of independents, but because of his strength with his own party, is up by 9.4 points, 53.4% to 44%. Take a look in the image below. The chart shows how this poll looks when it is unskewed. The results that matter, obviously, are those that occur tomorrow, but I do think there is something significantly wrong with this poll. 

Click Image for Expanded View

Now on to my prediction. 

If you've followed our Saturday morning radio show, The 405 Live, you would have noticed that I'm one of the few conservative's out there that does not predict a win for Mitt Romney. Of course, as a HUGE fan of Romney, this would be very disappointing, but unfortunately, I do think it's a reality. 

You might instinctively say, "but wait... you 'unskew' every poll you can, and your unskewed polls show Romney doing quite well. How can you think he is going to lose?"

Great question. First let me say that yes, while I unskew every poll, and while yes, they tend to show leads for Romney, they are not the only fruit in the basket, and I will try to measure some of these. 

Many of these polls, prior to being unskewed, use 2008 voter turnout models, and in 2008, when Obama rose to stardom, there were many more democrats than republicans. As stated, this was to the tune of approximately +7 D. Early indications and polls show that this democrat lead no longer exists, and the real voter sampling is something from +5 D to +3 D, to even +1 R. This is one of the great unknowns. How each party will turn out and in what force is still a great mystery. Gallup claims the overall turnout for 2012 will not be as strong as 2004 or 2008, but again, that remains to be seen. If that is the case, that would benefit Romney.

Moving on with another important stat I must address is that independents tend to favor Romney. We have noticed this in nearly every poll, and as stated above, it is the case with CNN's poll. Are the polls accurate? Again, who knows? 

The Catholic vote lead for Obama has shrunk, and so has the young vote, too. Early voting numbers are stronger for republicans this time around, and while the "gender gap" has not necessarily improved for Romney relative to 2008, it hasn't deteriorated either. These, again, are strengths for Romney. 

I could go on with these. By now I'm sure you're asking, "wait... with all these Romney strengths, and a poor economy for Obama, how do you say Romney will lose?"

One word: Gut. Okay, it's not as simple as that. It's more like: I don't really have faith in America's ability to wade through the bull. Frankly, I think the media is in the pocket for Obama, and I think this is what will propel him to victory. Just one quick look at www.newsbusters.org can show you how the media slants more for Obama now than it did in 2008. The media's ability to shield Obama from negative news while promoting anti-Romney sentiment has been truly disgusting. On top of that, social media is playing a bigger role now than 4 years ago, and that tends to favor democrats, too. I find these two powers tend to mix. When I log on to CNN.com to read comments, or on to Facebook, I tend to see that the average American has bought on the baloney, plain and simple. When I see false information repeated constantly... such as "Mitt Romney pays a lower tax rate than the middle class (I've debunked this with IRS data numerous times)," and "Mitt Romney is a racist," I'm saddened that Americans repeat these hollow claims. Unfortunately, I think these notions are strong with many Americans, and, with the assistance of the media, Team Obama has painted Mitt Romney as a character we should not only fear but loathe. It's completely unfair and untrue, but the reason I think Mitt Romney will lose the election is because the majority of Americans believe this caricature. This unchecked, unbalanced faction known as the media is the most powerful institution in the country, and I truly believe it has decided the election. If you'd like to see the details of my prediction, take a look at my electoral map mock-up using RCP's "create your own map" function below:

Click Image for Expanded View

There you have it. I think Obama will win 281-257. Additionally, I think I am incorrect with Virginia as well. I have it as a Romney win, though I wouldn't be surprised if it went blue in this election, giving Obama a 294 to 244 win. I think tomorrow will be a sad day for not only conservatives and republicans because of the Romney loss, but for Americans in general. This election has not been bought by SuperPACs or by unions or any faction of the like; it has been controlled by the media. But trust me: there is no person in this country who wants so badly to face the humiliation of being so stunningly and embarrassingly proven wrong than me. 

Who do you think will win? What is YOUR prediction for the election. Please share your results below. If you'd like to email an image of an electoral map with your predictions, please send it to loudmouthelephant@gmail.com and I'll post it below. 

UPDATE: MN 4 Rick has given his electoral map prediction: Romney 277 Obama 261 - 

Click Image for Expanded View

From MN 4 Rick's email - "Believe it or not, I do see Romney winning PA but not OH. And in spite of all the hoopla made recently about Romney potentially grabbing Minnesota, it would be nice, but it's not going to happen."

Thank you MN 4 Rick for your contribution!

UPDATE: 32slim32 has given his electoral map prediction: Romney 286 Obama 252 - 

Click Image for Expanded View

From 32slims32's email - "I think WI goes Romney as they booted Ross Finegold, elected Scott Walker and KEPT Walker in the recall (pretty convincingly too).

I also think Romney takes OH, IA and NH. Possibly CO.

As far as the Volunteer State (Tennessee), 0bama will win about 8 or 9 counties (out of 95). He will win Shelby County (Memphis) and the 2 counties that border it and he will win Davidson county (Nashville) and the counties that surround Nashville. He will get trounced in the rest of the state."

Thank you 32slim32 for your contribution, and I hope you're right!