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Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Florida Republican Primary - January 31st, 2012

I guess we can say this is a "big" day :-)

Twitter Tags: #FLPrimary #FL #Florida #FloridaPrimary

Nothing unusual here; just an open forum for thoughts, opinions, predictions, rants, expressions, etc.


- Who do you think will win the Florida primary?
- Will anyone drop out after this primary but before the next one?
- Will the winner of the Florida primary win the GOP nomination ?
- Can you predict who finishes where (percentages)?
- *** This is a new one for those betting types: Predict the time at which CNN calls the primary. For example, in New Hampshire, CNN called it almost instantly. For South Carolina, it took them a while. When do you think it will happen? Final polls close in Florida at 8:00pm Eastern. I will be watching and will post the exact time it closed here.

Thank you.

POST AT 8:00pm: To those that predicted when CNN would call the primary... it was officially called right at 8:00pm.

Mitt Romney - 46.4%
Newt Gingrich - 31.9%
Rick Santorum - 13.3%
Ron Paul - 7.0%

Others - 1.4%

Poster Jenner Red (the first commenter) was correct in predicting CNN would call the primary at 8:00pm. He also had the correct order and came pretty close with his percentage for Newt and somewhat close for Romney.

I was off for Romney, my Newt prediction was extremely close, I was way off with Paul, and I had Santorum almost dead on but in the wrong order.

Onward to Nevada!


  1. I'm a Newt fan, but I don't think he has a chance... I say:

    Mitt - 43%
    Newt - 31%
    Paul - 14%
    Santorum - 10%
    All the other scraps like Cain - 2%

    The time CNN calls it: 8:00 EST. DOne.

    Jenner Red

  2. Anonymous, I just copied and pasted your names

    Newt - 46% (yes, he is killing here dont believe the polls)
    Mitt - 40%
    Paul - 10%
    Santorum - 4%

    I think CNN will wait a bit, it will be called at 8:27pm

  3. I'd be surprised if Romney didn't win.

    While Santorum seems overly anxious lately because of his recent surge in contributions compared to the near-zilch he was getting early on, I think his performance in FL will seal the deal in him dropping out as a candidate. No polls show him competing with Newt/Romney.

    Ron Paul doesn’t care about FL, and will likely be in the race until the end regardless of performance.

    Newt, while a good debater, has too much baggage and extreme ideas to really make it. He may still do well in FL just because of his debate performance and near-limitless campaign money at current, but I don't see him possibly making the primary. And if he does, it would be a disaster for Republicans.

    There's a reason that Democrats are focusing exclusively on running negative campaigns against Romney, because he stands the best chance vs. Obama. Not to mention the fact that none of his constituents in Congress from when Newt was speaker endorse him, and even Bob Dole openly defamed his character and labeled him as a worst-case scenario.

  4. RKen - Good morning! Good to hear from you, sir.

    I usually wouldn't get into the prediction business here; we don't want to show any bias towards a single candidate here. But, reality is reality and I predict:

    Mitt Romney - 38%
    Newt Gingrich - 32%
    Ron Paul - 17% (I think the college-age voter will have a strong push from word of mouth advertising)
    Rick Santorum - 13%

    I predict Rick Santorum will drop out after this primary due to the lack of support and money. I won't saw who I think will win the nomination... but I do think that CNN will call it as soon as the polls close, just as the first anonymous poster predicts.

    1. Good morning to you as well!

      I stand with you on those percentage estimates, and no doubt a loss like that would certainly take Santorum out of the game.

    2. And I meant to say "I won't say who I think will win..."

  5. Romney's "all in" strategy gets in an "all win" and he gets 48%
    The only reason Newt gets anything is because he did well in SC and gets 34%
    Santorum gets a bump for being a good guy and going home to take care of his kid and gets 11%
    Ron Paul the rambling old idiot gets 7%

    Everyone drops out after Mitt's domination.

  6. I think Mitt will win big (10% - 15% margin) followed by Newt (gotta remember, half the folks from Florida are from the Northeast!). I think if Paul finishes 3rd than Santorum will leave the race stating he is just unable to connect with voters. He will endorse Gingrich though I don't see the evangelicals following necessarily. Some will sit home and some will swallow hard and support him. Ultimately, they may have to swallow even harder to support Romney but I think regardless, there will be a much smaller evangelical turnout this season as they are displeased with the choices. Newt is gonna push Romney for a while (as long as that Vegas money keeps rolling in). RP will stay in for a while as well and could have strong showings in ME and NV (especially in NV).

    1. Whatsamattausa - Good morning!

      You know... that's a really good point about many Florida voters being from the Northeast!

  7. Romney 42%
    Newt 26%
    Santorum 20%
    Paul 10%
    Other 2%

    1. Anonymous - Thanks for the input... Got a time CNN will call it? Drop outs? Hope to hear back from you!

  8. It's a laaaannnnndddddslllllliiiiiiddddeeeeeeeee

    LOL at Paul. LOL at Santorum, and certainly LOL at Newt...

    President Romney, 2012