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Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Alabama and Mississippi Primaries

Don't forget the Hawaiian and American Samoa caucuses, too.

Though this isn't as big as Super Tuesday, the southern primaries are key. Most polls have shown that these two states will easily go to Newt Gingrich, but recent polls have shown that Mitt Romney's popularity is on the rise. This could be a "win-or-go-home" night for the former Speaker.

Key Questions:

- Who will win the Alabama primary? Who will win the Mississippi primary?
- Will Newt Gingrich go two-for-two?
- If Newt does not win either state, is that the end of his candidacy?
- Will Mitt Romney surprise the country by winning both states? If he does, is he locked in for the nomination?
- How will Rick Santorum do? Ron Paul?
- Who will drop out after these primaries?

- If you have your own questions, have them answered by posting them in the forum below.


- Predict who will finish where in each state.
- What percentages will each candidate capture?

All comments and discussions are welcomed. Thank you.


  1. Alabama will go like this:

    Newt will get 38%
    Mitt will get 37%
    Santorum will get 18%
    Paul will get 7%

    Miss will go like this:

    Mitt will get 34%
    Newt will get 32%
    Santorum will get 21%
    Paul will get 13%

    I think Newt maintains being stubborn and Paul will drop out after this race. He is 4th in pop vote he is 4th in delegates.

  2. Today's races are important in my eyes because there is a very real chance Romney wins both states while Santorum and Gingrich split the conservative vote. If one or the other (Santorum or Gingrich) would have exited the race, Romney would likely lose each state handily. I think if Santorum can pull out a double victory (and I am doubtful he can) then I think Gingrich will exit the race. Otherwise, both will likely remain unless Romney wins both states and the two realize the only way to beat Romney is to join forces. However, with two evangelical states now out of the way and in Romney's column, it may be too late. I don't see Paul leaving the race. He spends very little money and is in it to convey and popularize his message. He has a great grassroots campaign and only seems to gain popularity, albeit at a snails pace.

    My hope is that Santorum wins, just so that things tighten up and get very interesting. Does anyone know what happens to Gingrich delegates if he leaves the race and endorses Santorum? Is it different for each states' delegates or do they go to the endorsed party? If Santorum did win both races today AND got the Gingrich endorsement and delegates, this would be a VERY tight race!

  3. Oh Christ. Another Ron Paul nut. He is nuts. Lowest delegates, lowest popular vote. No one likes him. He should just bow out now and endorse Romney so Romney can get all RP's vote and beat Obama