Open Chat... All Day, Every Day! Express Your Views, Debate, and Challenge the Views of Others!

In order to keep up with the nature of free, spirited debate, I wanted to place the chat feature at the top of the homepage. This ensures people can come here and share their views on anything they wish and not have it be related to any specific discussion. Here, people can share ideas, links, and views "unmoderated" and an their own pace. To me, this makes The Elephant in the Room blog truly a place for debate.

Friday, September 6, 2013

The August 2013 Jobs Report

Here is the August 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Key Highlights:

- The unemployment rate fell to 7.3%. Non-farm employers added 169,000 new jobs.

- The number of unemployed persons decreased from 11.5 million in July to 11.3 million in August.

- The civilian labor force participation rate decreased slightly from 63.4% in July to 63.2% in August. This is a sharp increase, and the chief contributor to the unemployment rate's decrease even with only 169k jobs created. It is also the lowest rate for civilian labor force participation since August, 1978.

- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased from 89,957,000 in July to 90,473,000... an increase of 516,000.

- The civilian labor force dropped from 155,798,000 to 155,486,000, which is a massive drop of 312,000.

- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) fell from 8,200,000 in July to 7,900,000 in August.

- Average hourly earnings decreased by 5 cents. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 2.2% yearly rate.

- June's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 188,000 to 172,000, while July's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 162,000 to 104,000. This is a total shortage of 74,000 jobs relative to what was reported.

My quick take:

And this is going to be quick:

"Oh my!" This is bad. What positive notion can one take from these numbers? If the only plus side to these numbers is, "well, at least they didn't decline..." this is a bad jobs report. The unemployment rate when down, sure, but that's solely because people simply gave up for work... which is a trend we've seen under President Obama. Additionally, and this is truly sad, the jobs numbers for the previous two months were revised downward, with July's numbers coming in at a measly 104,000 jobs added. This is below the number needed to simply keep up with population growth.

All in all, this is about as bad as it gets for a jobs report that still has some job growth in it. I'm dying to hear the media's spin.

Friday, August 2, 2013

The July 2013 Jobs Report

Here is the July 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Key Highlights:

- The unemployment rate fell to 7.4%. Non-farm employers added 162,000 new jobs.

- The number of unemployed persons decreases from 11.8 million in June to 11.5 million in July.

- The civilian labor force participation rate decreased slightly from 63.5% in June to 63.4% in July.

- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased from 89,717,000 in June to 89,957,000 in July, a decrease of 240,000.

- The civilian labor force dropped from 155,835,000 to 155,798,000, or 37,000.

- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) remained flat a 8,200,000 in July.

- Average hourly earnings decreased by 2 cents. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 1.9% yearly rate.

- May's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 195,000 to 176,000, while June's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 195,000 to 188,000.

My quick take:

This is relatively disastrous. Most economists predicted a "strong" jobs report with employers expanding their payrolls by between 180,000 - 200,000 workers. Not only did this fall 11% - 23% below expectations, but wages fell, and the number of people who stopped looking for work rose again. The total civilian labor force participation rate decrease to 63.4%, a number that represents the unemployment situation of 1979. On top of that, wages fell, and the number of jobs created for the previous two months were revised downward by about 26,000.

What will the media say? Naturally, they will tout that the unemployment rate fell to 7.4%. But when we look at the data in the report itself, is there really anything at all to cheer about? I've stated this many times; we need 150,000 new jobs per month in job growth just to account for new employees entering the workforce. 162,000 jobs simply doesn't cut it. We also need 350,000 - 400,000 new jobs created, month over month, mind you, to bring the rate down to an acceptable level (< 6.0%) within the next 3 years.

In short, this jobs report is heartbreaking. It's low-level mediocrity at its best. There is very little in this report with respect to positive news, and if the "positive" news broadcast by the media is something like, "well, at least we didn't lose jobs" or "the rate fell to 7.4%%" without giving the full context of the report, frankly, that's pathetic... just like this "recovery."

Friday, July 5, 2013

The June 2013 Jobs Report

Here is the June 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Key Highlights:

- The unemployment remained unchanged at 7.6%. Non-farm employers added 195,000 new jobs.

- The number of unemployed persons remained unchanged at 11.8 million in June.

- The civilian labor force participation rate increased slightly from 63.4% in May to 63.5% in June.

- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased slightly from 89,705,000 in May to 89,717,000 in June.

- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) remained flat at increased by 322,000 from 7,900,000 in May to 8,200,000 in June.

- Average hourly earnings rose by 10 cents. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 2.2% yearly rate.

- April's jobs created numbers were revised from 149,000 to 199,000, while May's jobs created numbers were revised upward from 175,000 to 195,000.

My quick take:

Overall, this is a decent jobs report, though nothing to sound the trumpets over. In my opinion, the best news from this is the revision of April's and May's jobs numbers. They both inched closer to the 200k new jobs per month number. While an improvement, these barely account for the population addition our country experiences every month. We need steady job growth of around 300-350k jobs per month, steadily, to bring the unemployment rate down significantly. The biggest negative, in my opinion, is the increase in persons employed for part-time reasons. This jumped heavily, and can only be looked at in a negative way. The summer employment period marks when new graduates hit the job market, and if the majority of jobs being taken are in the part-time job sectors, this isn't good news for many. Overall, this isn't a terrible jobs report, but it certainly isn't spectacular.

What's your take? Please share your thoughts below.

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

The Supreme Court Rules on DOMA and Prop 8

Today, June 26, 2013 will be a day that is defined differently depending on whom you talk to. The Supreme Court struck down part of the Defense of Marriage Act and sent Proposition 8 back to the State of California essentially ruling that the people who appealed the California Supreme Court's ruling that it was unconstitutional had no legal standing to challenge that decision.

Here are the two official SCOTUS rulings:

DOMA: http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/12pdf/12-307_g2bh.pdf

Prop 8: http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/12pdf/12-144_8ok0.pdf

So, what do you think? Did the SCOTUS make the right decisions? Did it "legislate from the bench?" Did it open up any judicial cans of worms? Please share your thoughts below.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Is Edward Snowden a Hero or a Traitor?

As you've probably heard, whistle blower Edward Snowden is the man behind leaking the NSA's massive secret electronic/phone data capturing program to the British paper The Guardian. If you are unfamiliar with the story, here are a few links for reference:

CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/10/politics/nsa-leak/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/06/10/report-nsa-contract-worker-is-surveillance-source/

ABC News: http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/edward-snowden-reported-nsa-leaker-face-extradition-hong/story?id=19362851

Friday, June 7, 2013

The May 2013 Jobs Report

Here is the May 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Key Highlights:

- The unemployment rate increased slightly to 7.6%. Non-farm employers added 175,000 new jobs.

- The number of unemployed persons remained increased from 11.7 million in April to 11.8 million in May.

- The civilian labor force participation rate increased slightly to 63.4%.

- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) decreased modestly from 89,936,000 in April to 89,705,000 in May.

- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) remained flat at 7,900,000.

- Average hourly earnings rose by 1 cent. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 2.0% yearly rate.

- March's jobs created numbers were revised from 138,000 to 142,000, while April's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 165,000 to 149,000.

While most of my analysis of previous jobs reports has been lengthy, to me, the best way to sum up May's report is: more of the same. We're puttering along, a lot of people are left out of the job market (though yes, some have came back into it), and many people are taking small, part-time jobs to make ends meet. We need robust, continuous hiring of around 300-350k jobs per month for the next 3 years to bring the unemployment rate down to 6%. We are nowhere close to this, but the media will make reports like this and subsequent similar reports to come out to be great news of a "recovery." Sadly, we really haven't experienced any such thing.

What do you think? Please share your thoughts below.

Monday, June 3, 2013

Oh How the Left Loves to Hide Anti-Rich Propaganda...

You know why (well, one of the many reasons) the left teams up against the rich? It isn't just the jealousy, or the pure envy, but a mixture of those emotions and the fact that there are so few rich to compared to the amount of non-rich that exist.

Frankly, there is a bullying element in it.

But regardless, the left will stop at nothing to incorporate the "we hate the evil, stinking, filthy rich" feeling into everything they do. It feels too good not to. Those who pride themselves on "social" everything love banding together in groups (hello unions) in order to facilitate a change.

Why did I bring this up? Well, it's because I wanted to discuss the article titled, "After Your Job is Gone." - (http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/01/after-your-job-is-gone/)

Friday, May 3, 2013

The April 2013 Jobs Report

Here is the April 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Key Highlights:

- The unemployment rate dropped to 7.5%. Non-farm employers added 165,000 new jobs, beating analysts' predictions.

- The number of unemployed persons remained unchanged at 11.7 million in April.

- The civilian labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 63.3%. In spite of the better-than-expected jobs numbers, this figure is concerning.

- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) decrease modestly from 89,967,000 in March to 89,936,000.

- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) increased by 278,000 to 7,900,000.

- Average hourly earnings rose by 4 cent. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 1.9% yearly rate.

The good:

The unemployment rate fell and 165,000 jobs were added, beating analysts' predictions. This is the first time in a while that a decrease in the unemployment rate was not a result of people giving up looking for work and leaving the labor force. Additionally, February's and March's numbers were revised upward to 332,000 and 138,000, respectively. These are good signs.

The bad:

The labor force participation rate remains high. This number needs to increase... it's just that simple. Also, the  part-time labor force increased, and that's undesirable. The economy needs to add full-time jobs, not part-time ones, or ones that people are taking simply because they can't find work elsewhere. This, coupled with the decrease in work hours, could be a sign that employers of low-wage workers are making shifts in hiring and employee retention with the upcoming health care bill kicking in full swing next year. Additionally, the economy needs to add 150,000 jobs per month to simply keep up with population growth. While 165,000 beats that number, it's not enough to consider this an expansion. This is slow job growth. It's mediocre or bare minimum at best. We might not be slipping into another recession, but we surely not pulling out of one quickly.

The ugly:

My prediction might seem redundant, but the press will champion this. Get ready for the tidal wave of fawning coming from the press claiming how wonderful it is. Live I've said, the numbers are decent... they certainly aren't terrible, but they're nothing to write home about, either.

What do YOU think? Please share your thoughts below.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

Listen to OpinioNation LIVE at 10:00PM EST Tonight!

We start May off strong with a great, and maybe controversial, discussion about rights. I'm going to be sharing my views that our rights, our American rights, are really privileges, and that the notion of "human rights" isn't real but yet a political tool used to sway minds and push legislation.

Be sure to join us at 10:00pm EST! Listen to me (Mike - LME), AmyBruceand host, Jon Rollingsas we discuss all the major news headlines of the week. Click the image to listen in:

(the Live365 radio panel will be on the right - it says "Live Stream Players")

 This is a great opportunity for you to share your thoughts. I'm sure there will be some disagreement on the subject matter of this show. Be sure to express your views live! Call us at 877-297-8022, and you'll promptly be put on the air. Engage the panel, share your views, or ask a question to our listeners. We hope to hear from you.

 Finally, be sure to stick around for our final, lightning-round segment The Bottom Line.

P.S. Speaking of rights, be sure to vote in our gay marriage poll on the left side of the blog!

Monday, April 29, 2013

Weekly News Headline and Debate Topic Forum 4/29/13

Without an election, the political discourse in the country seems to have calmed to a light simmer recently. That being said, there are always news topics to discuss.

The purpose of these forums is to have an open space for people to debate these topics and to share whatever is on their mind. Here are a few things that caught my eye; please feel free to comment and/or share your own:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-26/senate-passes-last-ditch-bill-to-end-controller-furloughs.html

- I actually agree that this is simply a "Band-Aid" and that it will simply open the door for more exemptions rending the spending cuts that actually kicked in worthless.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/28/army-says-no-to-more-tanks-but-congress-insists/

- UGH. I talk about this constantly on our radio show OpinioNation. It disgusts me that our elected leaders obtain and retain their positions by giving something to people, via the government, in exchange for votes. This is no different. The army has said they don't want these tanks, but our elected leaders don't want to be the voice of the party that says, "no" and threatens to close up shop in ever-so-important Ohio. Power and politics over reality and logic. Disgusting.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Listen to OpinioNation LIVE at 10:00PM EST Tonight!

Our fan base is growing, and it's not because we're pretty. We give the straight talk with no balk. Be sure to join us at 10:00pm EST! Listen to me (Mike - LME), AmyBruceand host, Jon Rollingsas we discuss all the major news headlines of the week. Click the image to listen in:

(the Live365 radio panel will be on the right - it says "Live Stream Players")

 This is a great opportunity for you to share your thoughts. From Boston to West, Texas, gay marriage to gun control, taxes to inflation, and everything in between, whatever your opinions, our show is your platform. Call us at 877-297-8022, and you'll promptly be put on the air. Engage the panel, share your views, or ask a question to our listeners. We hope to hear from you.

 Finally, be sure to stick around for our final, lightning-round segment The Bottom Line.

Monday, April 22, 2013

Weekly News Headline and Debate Topic Forum 4/22/13

After a tough, fear-filled, emotion-packed week, we take a step back and try to restore a sense of normalcy to everyday life. The Boston Marathon bombings sent us through a whirlwind of emotions from fear to shock to tension to a sense of victory (even in the smallest sense) as we watched last weeks events unfold.

As we move forward, new issues are sure to come up. While the tragedy in Boston won't be forgotten, other social, economic, and political issues remain.

As usual, please share any and all comments and opinions below.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Listen to OpinioNation LIVE at 10:00PM EST Tonight!

With heavy hearts we will be going on the air tonight. Join us at 10:00pm EST! Listen to me (Mike - LME), AmyBruceand host, Jon Rollingsas we discuss all the major news headlines of the week. Click the image to listen in:

(the Live365 radio panel will be on the right - it says "Live Stream Players")

 This is a great opportunity for you to share your thoughts. Whatever your opinions, our show is your platform. If you want to rant, let off some steam, share a viewpoint, or flat out disagree with us, call us at 877-297-8022, and you'll promptly be put on the air. Engage the panel, share your views, or ask a question to our listeners... it doesn't matter - we're here for you, and we hope to hear from you.

 Finally, be sure to stick around for our final, lightning-round segment The Bottom Line.

P.S. Due to work constraints, I missed posting the weekly debate forum on Monday. But don't worry; a new one will be up next Monday, and any comment section is open for debate. If you'd like, you can call in to the show to debate, too! My apologies on missing this post.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Listen to OpinioNation LIVE at 10:00PM EST Tonight!

Here we go again... lots of topics to talk about. See our discussion list here. Join us at 10:00pm EST! Listen to me (Mike - LME), AmyBruceand host, Jon Rollingsas we discuss all the major news headlines of the week. Click the image to listen in:

(the Live365 radio panel will be on the right - it says "The 405 Radio - Live Stream")

 This is a great opportunity for you to share your thoughts. Whatever your opinions, our show is your platform. If you want to rant, let off some steam, share a viewpoint, or flat out disagree with us, call us at 877-297-8022, and you'll promptly be put on the air. Engage the panel, share your views, or ask a question to our listeners... it doesn't matter - we're here for you, and we hope to hear from you.

 Finally, be sure to stick around for our final, lightning-round segment The Bottom Line.

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

"Gun Control" Fueled by Emotion and not Logic

I've said this many times: I'm a conservative republican, and while I love our party and its ideals, I don't believe, by any means, that it's perfect. In that regard, I've also said many times that I think there are some positions the GOP holds that are losing propositions (the GOP's position on gay marriage, for example, I think, regardless of anyone's personal feelings, is a losing position to have in the party of smaller government), and while these political "losers" are small in number, there are many, many winners.

Simply put, gun rights is one of these winners. In my opinion, the GOP has the winning position. Hands down.

Much has been said in this arena since the tragic massacre in Newtown, Connecticut, and that tragedy should never be forgotten. No one can fathom the loss and grief the families and friends of the 26 victims are feeling. It's unquestionably a sorrow few know, and this brief article is, in no way, an attempt to downplay that aspect of one of the darkest events in American history.

Monday, April 8, 2013

Weekly News Headline and Debate Topic Forum 4/8/13

First, a sendoff to the Iron Lady:

source: wikipedia

Margaret Thatcher, October 13 1925 - April 9 2013 - - - The first female Prime Minister of Great Britain... a trailblazer to many. Thank you.

What do YOU think of Margaret Thatcher? Her policies... her style... her portrayal in the media... her legacy? Be sure to share your thoughts below.

As usual, there is a whole gamut of news topics to discuss from the dismal employment numbers to North Korea's continued provocation to the death of another American diplomat. Whatever it is, share your opinions and engage others below.

Friday, April 5, 2013

The March 2013 Jobs Report

Here is the March 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Key Highlights:

- The unemployment rate dropped to 7.6%. Non-farm employers added 88,000 new jobs, falling well short of analysts' predictions.

- The number of unemployed persons edged downward to 11.7 million in March from 12 million in February.

- The civilian labor force participation rate dropped to 63.3% form 63.5% in February. This is the lowest level of labor force participation this country has seen since May 1979.

- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased by 663,000 from 89,304,000 in February to 89,967,000 in March.

- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) fell by 350,000 to 7,600,000.

- Average hourly earnings rose by 1 cent. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 1.8% yearly rate.

The change in total non-farm payroll employment for January was revised upward from +119,000 to +148,000, and the change for February was revised downward from +236,000 to +268,000.

So what do I think? Ummm, can you say déja vu? This is a disaster! The unemployment rate is now 7.6%, something the democrats will probably brag about, but the key facet that will get overlooked: nearly 500,000 people stopped looking for work! This is tragic. These people, who are no longer counted in the unemployment rate, simply gave up. Since they're not trying to find work anymore, they're not counted in the unemployment rate, and this gives the UE rate an artificially low reading. This becomes apparent when we look at the civilian labor force participation rate... which is now at its lowest level since May, 1979. Moreover, the employment-to-population ratio is 58.5%. How can a country continue when nearly half the population isn't producing?

Sadly, the media will trumpet this 7.6% rate as a victory. It's not. It's a tragedy. Millions of people are giving up looking for work, and the poverty level in this country is at its highest level since 1960. And all this has happened BEFORE Obamacare has kicked in. The CBO estimates the ACA will cost 850,000 jobs over the next 10 years.

It's clear: the government is not helping... it's hurting. Obama's policies are not a boon to employment; they're a destroyer of it. But hey... when you're unemployed and destitute, you turn to the government for support... and when one party of the government promises to "help" and "take care of you"... when it comes time to vote, you won't bite the hand that feeds you. This is the way of the democratic party.

What do you think? Share your thoughts below.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Listen to OpinioNation LIVE at 10:00PM EST Tonight!

North Korea, gun control, Hillary is "back," budget woes, NCAA athletics, and more on tonight's show. Be sure to join us at 10:00pm EST! Listen to me (Mike - LME), AmyBruceand host, Jon Rollingsas we discuss all the major news headlines of the week. Click the image to listen in:

(the Live365 radio panel will be on the right - it says "The 405 Radio - Live Stream")

 This is a great opportunity for you to share your thoughts. Whatever your opinions, our show is your platform. Call us at 877-297-8022, and you'll promptly be put on the air. Engage the panel, share your views, or ask a question to our listeners. We hope to hear from you.

 Finally, be sure to stick around for our final, lightning-round segment The Bottom Line.

Monday, April 1, 2013

Weekly News Headline and Debate Topic Forum 4/1/13

April Fool's!

Well, I really have nothing to fool anyone with, but I thought that it would be fun to center come of this week's discussion board on foolish things. For example:

"It's foolish that we send millions of dollars overseas while not being able to balance our budget."

You know... stuff like this.

What do you think? Share your thoughts on government/political foolishness, or anything of that matter, however you like, below.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Listen to OpinioNation LIVE at 10:00PM EST Tonight!

Yes, your new wave political radio is on at 10:00pm EST tonight! Listen to me (Mike - LME), AmyBruceand host, Jon Rollingsas we discuss all the major news headlines of the week - and there are a LOT! You won't want to miss it! Click the image to listen in:

(the Live365 radio panel will be on the right - it says "The 405 Radio - Live Stream")

 This is a great opportunity for you to share your thoughts. Want to express your views on the recent Supreme Court hearings on gay marriage... or feel the need to chime in gun control... do you love/hate Obamacare? Whatever your opinions, our show is your platform. Call us at 877-297-8022, and you'll promptly be put on the air. Engage the panel, share your views, or ask a question to our listeners. We hope to hear from you.

 Finally, be sure to stick around for our final, lightning-round segment The Bottom Line.