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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The Arizona and Michigan Primaries

If Super Tuesday is in a week, this is definitely Mini-Tuesday. Sure, it involves only 2 states, but it's about trends and momentum above all.

Key Arizona primary questions:

- Who do you think will win the Arizona primary?
- Will Mitt Romney win by as large of a margin as the polls have been showing?
- Who finishes where? Got any predictions for the percentages of votes cast for each candidate?
- Will there be any surprises?

Key Michigan primary questions:

- Who do you think will win the Michigan primary?
- Does the Santorum surge continue, or will Mitt go two-for-two?
- Who finishes where? Got any predictions for the percentages of votes cast for each candidate?
- Will there be any surprises?
- If Mitt does lose, how badly will this affect his chances of securing the nomination?
- This Yahoo! article says a Santorum robocall is urging democrats to vote against Romney (Michigan's primary is an open primary): http://news.yahoo.com/santorum-robocall-urges-democrats-vote-gop-primary-210935228.html - How much of an effect will this have on the primary?

- What will the turnout be in both states?
- Who will drop out? Who goes on?

Please share your opinions, predictions, analysis, etc. below. Thank you.
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7 comments:

  1. RKenFebruary 28, 2012 at 5:38 AM

    I personally find Santorum's call for Democrats to show up and vote against Romney to be rather despicable.

    For clarity, I’d feel the same if it was a Dem calling on Republicans as well.

    But this is a Republican primary, not a Democratic. If you can’t win the primary without just the Republican (and possibly Independent) votes then you lost.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LMEFebruary 28, 2012 at 5:41 AM

      RKen - good morning, sir!

      I always have to say that I don't yet endorse any one candidate, but as for your statement here: "I personally find Santorum's call for Democrats to show up and vote against Romney to be rather despicable."

      I couldn't agree with you more.

      As for winning the primary with just republican votes... I agree... but it might not be held that way in MI. If Romney was winning 35% - 34% but Santorum got a ton of Democrat voters to vote and he won say 36% - 35%, that's not good.

      Got percentage predictions, just for s***s and giggles?

      Delete
    2. RKenFebruary 28, 2012 at 6:15 AM

      Good morning to you too!

      For the heck of it, I'll say:
      38% Santorum
      35% Romney
      16% Newt
      11% Paul

      Possibly even a lower percent for Romney. All of the anti-Romney advertising, his questionable call on 'let Detroit go bankrupt, and potential Democratic opposition... doesn't seem it will bode well for him.

      Delete
    3. MN 4 RickFebruary 28, 2012 at 8:41 AM

      I gotta admit, when I heard the robocall thing, I wanted to "vomit."

      This is despicable, yes. I love Rick, but this move is making him look like a desperate fool. He is desperate to go down this path in the first place, and he is a fool because the democrats that vote for him would ultimately vote against him in November. What the hell does this get him?

      Delete
  2. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2012 at 6:28 AM

    I'm a newt fan, but after this trouncing, he is toast :-(

    AZ:

    47% Romney
    25% Santorum
    15% Ron Paul
    13% Gingrich

    MI:

    34% Romney
    33% Santorum
    20% Ron Paul
    13% Gingrich

    Gingrich (ugh, I hate to say this) drops after this. He won't even make it to Super Tuesday

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousFebruary 28, 2012 at 6:29 AM

      And I know the AZ number is high for Romney, but you can't destroy Santorum like he did in the debate and not get a big push.

      Delete
  3. MN 4 RickFebruary 28, 2012 at 7:55 AM

    Arizona Primary:

    39% Romney
    35% Santorum
    20% Gingrich
    6% Paul

    Michigan:

    37% Santorum
    33% Romney
    18% Paul
    12% Gingrich

    I think I'm going to be the closest. These are realistic, not hopeful.

    ReplyDelete

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