Here is the August 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Key Highlights:
- The unemployment rate fell to 7.3%. Non-farm employers added 169,000 new jobs.
- The number of unemployed persons decreased from 11.5 million in July to 11.3 million in August.
- The civilian labor force participation rate decreased slightly from 63.4% in July to 63.2% in August. This is a sharp increase, and the chief contributor to the unemployment rate's decrease even with only 169k jobs created. It is also the lowest rate for civilian labor force participation since August, 1978.
- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased from 89,957,000 in July to 90,473,000... an increase of 516,000.
- The civilian labor force dropped from 155,798,000 to 155,486,000, which is a massive drop of 312,000.
- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) fell from 8,200,000 in July to 7,900,000 in August.
- Average hourly earnings decreased by 5 cents. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 2.2% yearly rate.
- June's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 188,000 to 172,000, while July's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 162,000 to 104,000. This is a total shortage of 74,000 jobs relative to what was reported.
My quick take:
And this is going to be quick:
"Oh my!" This is bad. What positive notion can one take from these numbers? If the only plus side to these numbers is, "well, at least they didn't decline..." this is a bad jobs report. The unemployment rate when down, sure, but that's solely because people simply gave up for work... which is a trend we've seen under President Obama. Additionally, and this is truly sad, the jobs numbers for the previous two months were revised downward, with July's numbers coming in at a measly 104,000 jobs added. This is below the number needed to simply keep up with population growth.
All in all, this is about as bad as it gets for a jobs report that still has some job growth in it. I'm dying to hear the media's spin.
Friday, September 6, 2013
Friday, August 2, 2013
The July 2013 Jobs Report
Here is the July 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Key Highlights:
- The unemployment rate fell to 7.4%. Non-farm employers added 162,000 new jobs.
- The number of unemployed persons decreases from 11.8 million in June to 11.5 million in July.
- The civilian labor force participation rate decreased slightly from 63.5% in June to 63.4% in July.
- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased from 89,717,000 in June to 89,957,000 in July, a decrease of 240,000.
- The civilian labor force dropped from 155,835,000 to 155,798,000, or 37,000.
- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) remained flat a 8,200,000 in July.
- Average hourly earnings decreased by 2 cents. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 1.9% yearly rate.
- May's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 195,000 to 176,000, while June's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 195,000 to 188,000.
My quick take:
This is relatively disastrous. Most economists predicted a "strong" jobs report with employers expanding their payrolls by between 180,000 - 200,000 workers. Not only did this fall 11% - 23% below expectations, but wages fell, and the number of people who stopped looking for work rose again. The total civilian labor force participation rate decrease to 63.4%, a number that represents the unemployment situation of 1979. On top of that, wages fell, and the number of jobs created for the previous two months were revised downward by about 26,000.
What will the media say? Naturally, they will tout that the unemployment rate fell to 7.4%. But when we look at the data in the report itself, is there really anything at all to cheer about? I've stated this many times; we need 150,000 new jobs per month in job growth just to account for new employees entering the workforce. 162,000 jobs simply doesn't cut it. We also need 350,000 - 400,000 new jobs created, month over month, mind you, to bring the rate down to an acceptable level (< 6.0%) within the next 3 years.
In short, this jobs report is heartbreaking. It's low-level mediocrity at its best. There is very little in this report with respect to positive news, and if the "positive" news broadcast by the media is something like, "well, at least we didn't lose jobs" or "the rate fell to 7.4%%" without giving the full context of the report, frankly, that's pathetic... just like this "recovery."
Key Highlights:
- The unemployment rate fell to 7.4%. Non-farm employers added 162,000 new jobs.
- The number of unemployed persons decreases from 11.8 million in June to 11.5 million in July.
- The civilian labor force participation rate decreased slightly from 63.5% in June to 63.4% in July.
- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased from 89,717,000 in June to 89,957,000 in July, a decrease of 240,000.
- The civilian labor force dropped from 155,835,000 to 155,798,000, or 37,000.
- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) remained flat a 8,200,000 in July.
- Average hourly earnings decreased by 2 cents. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 1.9% yearly rate.
- May's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 195,000 to 176,000, while June's jobs created numbers were revised downward from 195,000 to 188,000.
My quick take:
This is relatively disastrous. Most economists predicted a "strong" jobs report with employers expanding their payrolls by between 180,000 - 200,000 workers. Not only did this fall 11% - 23% below expectations, but wages fell, and the number of people who stopped looking for work rose again. The total civilian labor force participation rate decrease to 63.4%, a number that represents the unemployment situation of 1979. On top of that, wages fell, and the number of jobs created for the previous two months were revised downward by about 26,000.
What will the media say? Naturally, they will tout that the unemployment rate fell to 7.4%. But when we look at the data in the report itself, is there really anything at all to cheer about? I've stated this many times; we need 150,000 new jobs per month in job growth just to account for new employees entering the workforce. 162,000 jobs simply doesn't cut it. We also need 350,000 - 400,000 new jobs created, month over month, mind you, to bring the rate down to an acceptable level (< 6.0%) within the next 3 years.
In short, this jobs report is heartbreaking. It's low-level mediocrity at its best. There is very little in this report with respect to positive news, and if the "positive" news broadcast by the media is something like, "well, at least we didn't lose jobs" or "the rate fell to 7.4%%" without giving the full context of the report, frankly, that's pathetic... just like this "recovery."
Friday, July 5, 2013
The June 2013 Jobs Report
Here is the June 2013 employment situation report from the BLS: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Key Highlights:
- The unemployment remained unchanged at 7.6%. Non-farm employers added 195,000 new jobs.
- The number of unemployed persons remained unchanged at 11.8 million in June.
- The civilian labor force participation rate increased slightly from 63.4% in May to 63.5% in June.
- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased slightly from 89,705,000 in May to 89,717,000 in June.
- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) remained flat at increased by 322,000 from 7,900,000 in May to 8,200,000 in June.
- Average hourly earnings rose by 10 cents. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 2.2% yearly rate.
- April's jobs created numbers were revised from 149,000 to 199,000, while May's jobs created numbers were revised upward from 175,000 to 195,000.
My quick take:
Overall, this is a decent jobs report, though nothing to sound the trumpets over. In my opinion, the best news from this is the revision of April's and May's jobs numbers. They both inched closer to the 200k new jobs per month number. While an improvement, these barely account for the population addition our country experiences every month. We need steady job growth of around 300-350k jobs per month, steadily, to bring the unemployment rate down significantly. The biggest negative, in my opinion, is the increase in persons employed for part-time reasons. This jumped heavily, and can only be looked at in a negative way. The summer employment period marks when new graduates hit the job market, and if the majority of jobs being taken are in the part-time job sectors, this isn't good news for many. Overall, this isn't a terrible jobs report, but it certainly isn't spectacular.
What's your take? Please share your thoughts below.
Key Highlights:
- The unemployment remained unchanged at 7.6%. Non-farm employers added 195,000 new jobs.
- The number of unemployed persons remained unchanged at 11.8 million in June.
- The civilian labor force participation rate increased slightly from 63.4% in May to 63.5% in June.
- The "not in labor force" count (those who have no job and have stopped looking for work) increased slightly from 89,705,000 in May to 89,717,000 in June.
- The number of persons employed for part-time economic reasons (those that are considered part-time involuntary workers) remained flat at increased by 322,000 from 7,900,000 in May to 8,200,000 in June.
- Average hourly earnings rose by 10 cents. The 12-month average for hourly earnings have risen at a 2.2% yearly rate.
- April's jobs created numbers were revised from 149,000 to 199,000, while May's jobs created numbers were revised upward from 175,000 to 195,000.
My quick take:
Overall, this is a decent jobs report, though nothing to sound the trumpets over. In my opinion, the best news from this is the revision of April's and May's jobs numbers. They both inched closer to the 200k new jobs per month number. While an improvement, these barely account for the population addition our country experiences every month. We need steady job growth of around 300-350k jobs per month, steadily, to bring the unemployment rate down significantly. The biggest negative, in my opinion, is the increase in persons employed for part-time reasons. This jumped heavily, and can only be looked at in a negative way. The summer employment period marks when new graduates hit the job market, and if the majority of jobs being taken are in the part-time job sectors, this isn't good news for many. Overall, this isn't a terrible jobs report, but it certainly isn't spectacular.
What's your take? Please share your thoughts below.
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